This market resolves to the first calendar year in which a story centered on a specific AI advancement or consequence clearly dominates the mainstream news cycle — meaning it’s the lead story (headline or top segment) on at least two major outlets (e.g. The New York Times, Fox News, CNN, BBC, etc.) for three consecutive days.

The story must be directly about AI capability, behavior, or consequences, not merely about regulation, politics, or corporate announcements.

Examples that would count:

• A new AI system autonomously achieves a major scientific or creative breakthrough, such as solving a previously unsolved math or physics problem, or designing and fabricating working technology with minimal human intervention.

• An AI displays apparent agency, emotion, or sentience, provoking global coverage and public debate.

• A mass behavioral or psychological event caused by AI (for instance, a chatbot convincing multiple users to harm themselves, or triggering a mass panic or social movement).

• A catastrophic or shocking outcome from an AI decision, such as an autonomous weapon or algorithm causing major unintended harm, or a massive economic crash traced to AI.

• An AI-created artistic or cultural shock, like an AI-written novel or film winning a major human award, or an AI influencer becoming a global celebrity and sparking existential debate.

Examples that would not count:

• Passage of AI regulation or congressional hearings.

• A CEO’s warnings about AI risk.

• Corporate news (like “OpenAI releases GPT-7” or “Google announces Gemini 5”).

• A political scandal merely involving AI-generated media.

• General think pieces about AI’s economic impact without a single defining event.

Final judgment in borderline cases will rest with me, the creator.

Resolution notes:

I won’t trade in this market. I’m loathe to mark things N/A and will usually have an opinion , but if I really can’t decide, I might N/A it. Buyer beware. That said, I try to be an honest guy, and I’ll do my best to interpret events in good faith and in line with the spirit of the question: when the world truly feels like “AI has arrived.”

If no such event occurs by January 1, 2041, all markets resolve no.

• Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A famous person getting catfished or phished with AI assistance would probably not count as an AI-related event that dominates the news cycle for purposes of this market's resolution.

• Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Due to a technical error in market setup (dependent vs independent answers), the creator will resolve this market early based on current trading prices, with all years except 2025 resolving to their last traded probability. 2025 will be resolved separately according to the original criteria.