Will the America Party be more successful than the Forward Party by the 2026 midterm elections?
17
Ṁ1kṀ3.6kDec 31
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I'll score each party based on federal elected officials:
1 point for each House member
10 points for each Senator
100 points for President
(I understand this is a very crude measure, but it has the benefit of being relatively easy to evaluate.)
The Forward party currently has a score of 12:
https://www.forwardparty.com/electeds/?_level_of_office=federal
Note that the bar for affiliation here is very low. The officials listed here are endorsed by the Forward Party, but still run as either Republicans or Democrats.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Which party will lead in the early voting through 2026 midterms?
Which party will win the house in 2026 midterms
Will Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?
4% chance
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
2% chance
Which Party will win the House popular vote in 2026?
Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]
49% chance
Will Republicans win the early voting game and win the 2026 midterms?
8% chance
Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?
93% chance
Will the Forward Party become a meaningful actor in the US political scene?
4% chance
What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?