Includes being taken, held, removed, guarded related to counting/recounting, by anyone: Democrats, Republicans, poll officials or workers, observers, or someone or some group the President sends.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point during the 2026 U.S. midterm elections cycle (from the start of early voting through the final certification of the November 3, 2026 general election results), there is at least one verified incident where physical ballots, ballot boxes, or voting/tabulation machines containing ballots are confiscated, seized, held, or removed from the custody of official county or state election administrators by:

• Law enforcement officers (local, state, or federal),

• Political party representatives, campaign observers, or partisan activist groups,

• Federal agents or personnel acting under orders from the executive branch, or

• Any other unauthorized individuals or groups.

To qualify for a YES resolution, the seizure, confiscation, or unauthorized holding must be reported by at least two major, credible national news outlets—such as the Associated Press or Reuters—as an extraordinary, contested, or legally disputed intervention.

This market will resolve to NO if no such non-routine seizure or unauthorized confiscation occurs and is reported by January 31, 2027.

Exclusions:

• Routine, authorized administrative transport, collection, or retrieval of ballot boxes by designated county/state election workers following standard legal protocols does not qualify.

• Standard law enforcement presence for security or emergency response at polling locations does not qualify, provided they do not seize, remove, or halt the processing of ballot boxes or ballots.

Background

Ballot security and the chain of custody have become critical focal points leading up to the November 2026 midterm elections. Earlier in 2026, California passed a suite of election security measures (such as Senate Bill 73 and Assembly Bill 282) to explicitly outlaw unauthorized ballot seizures by law enforcement. This legislation was prompted by a controversial incident where the Riverside County Sheriff seized more than 600,000 ballots from the county’s registrar of voters. Nationally, debates over federal intervention, ballot box access, and the role of partisan observers have intensified, prompting this market on whether any non-routine confiscations of ballots or ballot boxes will occur during the midterms.