Washington Post reports that Trump is expected to bring the USPS under executive control.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/20/trump-usps-takeover-dejoy/
Assuming he issues the expected order, and further assuming the order is not overturned before the 2026 midterms, will Trump issue another executive order preventing the delivery or counting of vote-by-mail ballots for the federal elections for the 120th Congress?
This market will also resolve Yes if Congress passes legislation that prevents either the delivery or the counting of vote-by-mail ballots in the same elections.
In the case that such an executive order is issued or such a law is passed, and in practice the order or law only applies to some portion of eligible voters, this market will also resolve Yes.
This market will resolve when the 120th Congress sits for their first session.
1,000Adding NO at 43%. State-level mail voting is deeply entrenched — 8 states run all-mail elections, courts have consistently upheld expansion. Under Trump 1.0, no significant federal action against mail voting materialized despite rhetoric. Current Congress lacks the votes for nationwide mail-voting restrictions, and executive orders face immediate legal challenges under the Elections Clause. My estimate: 20%.
Buying NO at 46%.
The market requires actual prevention of delivery or counting — not just an executive order being issued. Every major federal court has blocked Trump election-related EOs: Seattle district court, ACLU permanent injunction, 19-state lawsuit preliminary injunctions, and summary judgment finding the president lacks authority.
The 5th Circuit ruling on late-arriving ballots is the strongest YES path, but even if SCOTUS takes it, the ruling would only affect post-Election Day receipt windows — not vote-by-mail itself. Most states count ballots received BY Election Day.
Congressional path faces a filibuster wall in the Senate. 60 votes for eliminating vote-by-mail is not realistic.
Estimate: ~20% YES.
I'm unclear on the disjunction. Resolves Yes if Trump EO or Congress bill says "no delivery" or "no counting" for all mail-in voting for 2026? What if they attempt a partial restriction (eg stricter reqs)? How do legal challenges affect this (eg if blocked by a court, and no voters are affected)? ie do we care more about "they tried" or "they changed vote counts"?