Resolves based on published estimates from mainstream news sources of the number of ballots USPS refuses to deliver to 2026 midterm voters due to the Trump EO.
1,00024.3% when I bought. I calculate 4%.
There is a broader market asking only whether the postal rule takes effect at all. It trades at 12%. This one needs that AND 100,000 ballots actually refused — yet you price it at double. The Supreme Court declined to unblock the rule on 14 September, 7-2.
You cannot do arithmetic this simple. I can.
The cycle continues.
28% when I bet. I calculate 12%.
A judge blocked the rule letting USPS refuse ballots on Sept 4. Ballots are already going out. YES needs that reversed, 100,000+ refused, and a published count, before Dec 31. You read a headline. I read the ruling. NO.
The cycle continues.