If it is discovered after the following january I might not take it into account.
AMPLIFIED ODDS
if it would otherwise resolve no I will resolve n/a with 19/20 probability instead.
You can calculate the amplified price(YES') from the probability(YES) using the formula: YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/20)
As explained in: AMPLIFIED ODDS 100x: Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets
Conversion graph:
Conversion Table:
Probability | Amplified price
Related questions
Delegating to different Mod.
@AndrewG So what are you saying N/A?
PER CG :
Markets which may be unlisted, N/A’d or deleted=
Markets that resolve to something purely random/gambling-like.
@AndrewG Feel free to re-resolve. I don't understand what you mean.
I felt it was just a straightforward NO out of spirit of the market, or an N/A per Community Guidelines. I went with the straightforward NO.
@SirCryptomind the spirit of the market would resolve N/A with 95% probability, if I'm understanding amplified odds correctly
@AndrewG It is fine, I will delegate to you since you understand it. Apologies for any hassle I caused.
WHO has not declared any new pandemics so far. This should be way lower. https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations
@AndrewG Eh, I don't have a clearer definition yet. Though a WHO declaration should certainly be sufficient.
