Will the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2024?
Dec 31

Many western countries have provided military aid to Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. One item that has been discussed relatively frequently is the Taurus cruise missile currently in German inventories. It is similar to french/british SCALP EG/Storm Shadow, which has already been provided, and is also available in Spanish and South Korean inventories..

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This question will resolve Yes as soon as it provided to/appears in Ukraine or is used in the conflict in a way that generally favors the Ukrainian side. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO on December 31st 2024.

In the interest of transparency, here are some thoughts on how I will resolve the question in ambiguous situations:

This question will also resolve Yes if the missile is provided by a party other than Germany, or if it simply appears/is used without any official announcement. Without an announcement, OSINT analysis may visually identify the weapon somehow. I'm willing to accept such evidence only if it comes from a reasonably reliable source, such as the twitter account "@noclador".

Weapons deliveries are frequently announced ahead of time, and confirmed some time after delivery. The actual time/location of delivery is rarely revealed for tactical reasons. This may complicate the resolution of this question. For example, we may end up knowing that the missile was delivered in December 2024 or January 2025, without knowing the exact date. In case of such ambiguity, the question will resolve Yes.

If a variant of the Taurus, such as the KEPD 350K or KEPD 350K-2 is delivered, the question will also resolve Yes.

If a third party intervenes in the conflict and uses the Taurus to support Ukrainian interests, this question will also resolve Yes.

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@Schwabilismus Scholz stands by his no to Taurus - despite new US aid

The German Chancellor's rejection of the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles stands. Even the end of the blockade of new US aid for Ukraine does not change this.

@Schwabilismus Berlin. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) intends to stick to his no to the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to the Ukraine, even if the USA were to deliver its ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. At a press conference with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday, he said in response to a question about this: As far as Taurus was concerned, "my decision will not change".

The Chancellor reiterated that Germany and the UK were the most important suppliers of weapons to Ukraine, which had been attacked by Russia, and referred in particular to the extensive support that Germany had provided in the field of artillery and air defense.

"My decision is very clear as far as the one weapon system is concerned. But my decision is also clear that we will continue to be the biggest supporter of Ukraine in Europe, that we will continue to be the two who do the most, together with the UK."

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

@Schwabilismus What Herr Scholz says it not a good proxy for what Herr Scholz does

Quick update on resolution criteria: I've heard somewhere that the german government has considered providing Taurus missiles to the UK and/or France, in exchanging for the other countries providing more SCALP EG/Storm Shadow to Ukraine. This does not result in Taurus being in Ukraine and will not cause the question to resolve Yes. I think that this is clear from the original description, but wanted to make sure there are no misunderstandings.

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