Will the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2024?
52
1kṀ17k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Many western countries have provided military aid to Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. One item that has been discussed relatively frequently is the Taurus cruise missile currently in German inventories. It is similar to french/british SCALP EG/Storm Shadow, which has already been provided, and is also available in Spanish and South Korean inventories..

You can read more about the issue here:

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-germany-scholz-rattled-sending-taurus-missile-ukraine/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350

This question will resolve Yes as soon as it provided to/appears in Ukraine or is used in the conflict in a way that generally favors the Ukrainian side. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO on December 31st 2024.

In the interest of transparency, here are some thoughts on how I will resolve the question in ambiguous situations:

This question will also resolve Yes if the missile is provided by a party other than Germany, or if it simply appears/is used without any official announcement. Without an announcement, OSINT analysis may visually identify the weapon somehow. I'm willing to accept such evidence only if it comes from a reasonably reliable source, such as the twitter account "@noclador".

Weapons deliveries are frequently announced ahead of time, and confirmed some time after delivery. The actual time/location of delivery is rarely revealed for tactical reasons. This may complicate the resolution of this question. For example, we may end up knowing that the missile was delivered in December 2024 or January 2025, without knowing the exact date. In case of such ambiguity, the question will resolve Yes.

If a variant of the Taurus, such as the KEPD 350K or KEPD 350K-2 is delivered, the question will also resolve Yes.

If a third party intervenes in the conflict and uses the Taurus to support Ukrainian interests, this question will also resolve Yes.

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