Resolving to 50% as per the creator's statement in the comment below:

https://manifold.markets/ThecodermauThecodermau/will-the-gorosei-be-proven-to-be-st#ldjun2baov

If you see clarifications like this from creators in the future, try to prod them to put them in the market description for better visibility.

Just barely resolves Yes.

@traders thoughts on how this should resolve now that egghead is over?

@jacksonpolack the way I see it, the question asks if the gorosei will be proven to be stronger than the admirals. If there is no proof of them being stronger and if powerscaling is uncertain, I'd vote for no.

@jacksonpolack I follow the same logic as the fella above me

1. Egghead is over and has been over for some time

2. If they did not PROVE that they were stronger WITHIN THAT ARC, Egghead, than my conclusion would be a no.

@jacksonpolack egghead is over, should resolve no

@jacksonpolack

@ThecodermauThecodermau

Note the comment from the creator gave extremely specific resolution plans:

https://manifold.markets/ThecodermauThecodermau/will-the-gorosei-be-proven-to-be-st#ldjun2baov

Lets Just see If Kizaru atacks Saturn or something like this, If he doesnt, I will do the 50%

So, did that happen?

@Eliza Kizaru has not attacked Saturn in any way as of yet, no.

@Eliza So how does the math work for a 50% resolution. Let's say I invested 249 (which I did), my payout is 554.

I'm guessing 50% of my invested amount 249, goes to the other side so I lose: 124.5

I would have earned 554-249 = 305 but I only get half of that now so I gain 152.5.

So all in all I earn 152.5-124.5 = 28 mana?

@JaredAsh ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ shoot you'd know more than me clearly. I suck at math

@FROGMANIA I tried to reason it out, not sure if it's right though lol. I think in a 50% resolution, it pays some profit to move the percentage of the market toward 50% which is exactly what I did.

@JaredAsh Is that what would have to be done for everyone to get a fair payout of some kind?

@FROGMANIA Ṁ5,251 payout, Spent Ṁ2,350. If this is yours, you'd end up in a profit too.

2350/2 = you lose 1175

(5251-2350)/2 = you gain 1450.5

All in all profit for you: 275.5 mana gained

@FROGMANIA with a 50% resolution, not everyone will profit unfortunately. A lot of people who bought "No" when the market was below 50% primarily won't profit.

@JaredAsh 50/50 doesn't seem fair given it wasn't proven during egghead which is the question

@JaredAsh Okay so peeps would've had to hit a certain threshold in investing in order to qualify for the payout

@iwillexplode that's right, it isn't fair

@JaredAsh the way the math works is whatever you would have gotten paid out, you will be paid out half that amount.

So someone who would be paid 1000 if it resolved yes gets 500. Someone who would be paid 1000 if it resolved no gets 500.

Normally I would not resolve my own market to 50% but it is certainly within the set of tools market creators have and this creator very specifically said it would resolve to 50% If a certain thing did not happen.

@Eliza Doesn't seem right since it's not in the description? I would challenge the 50/50 result if the creator resolved it. because that outcome is not clear anywhere on the market itself, correct me. If I'm wrong?

@iwillexplode it's certainly not what I would do in this case if it was my own market, but everything about the site guidelines gives the creator of a market a LOT of discretion about how to resolve their markets. Unless they are doing something overtly fraudulent, it would be very rare to overturn their resolution.

Historically, creators have done a poor job of adding clarifications from the comment section to the market description, but time and time again, those clarifications have been held up as binding. Recently, the site was updated to automatically add clarifications from the comments to the market description to alleviate this issue.

I am trying to interpret the situation here in line with the guidelines we have been given, so I am trying to explain how I see it and what I think should be done, before we make the final resolution.

@Eliza understood

Resolve as no egghead arc is over

@FictionalLuvus @mods

Just thought of something, shouldn't this question be resolved no if it's pertaining to Egghead? Egghead is over and the gorosei didn't exactly prove they were stronger than admirals in that arc, so I feel that this should be resolved as no or the question should be reworded to say, "Are the Gorosei stronger than the Admirals?" or something along those lines, just my thoughts but do what ya want

@slither io We are not prepared for a Gorosei arc to come before an Admiral arc.