🏅 Top traders

final call. anyone?

A not-so-quick analysis of the users at play: (if i didnt put you in the right box apologies)

Inactive (1 month+ of no comments): Yev, LivInTheLookingGlass, TheSkeward, a, NuñoSempere

Awarded trustworthyish because public figure but not particularly invested in the Manifold community: EliezerYudkowsky, ScottAlexander, Aella, CGPGrey, ZviMowshowitz

Already commented: Conflux, MartinRandall

That leaves us with these users:

memestiny, jack, NathanpmYoung, itsTomekK, SneakySly, MattP, egroj, dreev, LarsDoucet, GavrielK, NcyRocks, MichaelWheatley, dglid, yaboi69, Duncn, CarsonGale, Tetraspace, BoltonBailey, MatthewBarnett, JacyAnthis, Gabrielle, KatjaGrace, AndrewG, MarcusAbramovitch

Users who are unlikely because they are not/barely active on the Discord: memestiny, itsTomekK, SneakySly, MattP, egroj, LarsDoucet, GavrielK, NcyRocks, dglid, yaboi69, Duncn, CarsonGale, Tetraspace, BoltonBailey, KatjaGrace, AndrewG

That leaves us with these users:

jack, NathanpmYoung, dreev, MichaelWheatley, JacyAnthis, Gabrielle, MarcusAbramovitch

Just my opinion, I will rank these people from most to least likely, based off my feelings.

1. MarcusAbramovitch

2. MichaelWheatley

3. jack

4. JacyAnthis

5. Gabrielle

6. NathanpmYoung

7. dreev

We will see

@bingeworthy omg, what are u doing? it's like ur trying to shake the beehive 🐝....zZzZzZz..
🤫🙈🙉🙊
also, what are you ranking with that list?

@higherLEVELING I am ranking who is most likely to comment that they to not trust other trustworthy users

@bingeworthy oh ok. we're on the yes side btw. no need to ruffle any feathers. silence was golden. but I think i can understand why ur list is ordered that way.

@bingeworthy LexFridman is added to the second category

I am betting YES not because I think that "trustworthy" users actually think the others are "trustworthy", but rather because of the social pressure not to come out against other high-profile community members.

@bingeworthy that is what this market is designed to find out :D

I don't think this honeypot 🍯 is sweet enough. might need to add some 🧀 to catch your 🐀

oh and BTW any admin = trustworthyish also for this market.

Just to be sure that I'm understanding the market so far:
- currently seeking a trustworthy.ish badge holder who is willing to go up against their fellow trustworthy.ish team member/ally/friend/BFF and say that they need to be stripped of the trustworthy.ish badge.
- the trustworthy.ish badge holder can rest assured that they will not face any backlash or negative consequence whether it's being ostracized, ignored, rejected, shunned, or disliked by the other members due to this reporting. "You're being a rat 🐀," shouldn't apply in this case, since no identities need to be revealed. It also isn't a betrayal of trust or a violation of privacy.
- for a no resolution, another trustworthy.ish badge holder to write something that conveys the idea that: Yes there is atleast one other trustworthy.ish badge holder that needs needs to have their badge revoked. Naming them specifically is not necessary, thus avoiding any backlash or retaliation from the badge holder that they are accusing
- for a yes resolution, the trustworthy.ish badge holders don't need to do anything. They can just sit back and relax. they should not comment or say anything at all since no one is forcing them. Bet on the yes side and reap the rewards. Even if they they were to speak out, any of their current relationships they hold with the other members probably won't be affected.
Am i missing anything?

@higherLEVELING I think you are presuming more unity among badgeholders than exists. Half of them got tossed a badge just for using the site when the feature came out.

@Mira I am assuming unity. I didn't know that they were given badges at the start. Thank you for pointing that out. Those that got it that way, they are true OGs here. They've been here since day 1 then. They probably predicted it would happen too.

Even if my view is a bit off, they do share an experience that only other trustworthy.ish users can understand, and that would be the stress that comes from having to resolve other peoples market. It seems like it can get stressful having to resolve markets that other people resolved incorrectly, trying to parse out who's telling the truth, who's lying, asking yourself if you're just being taken advantage of, etc.
That being said, from the outside, to me, the environment and atmosphere seems to be very peaceful . There isnt much conflict. I don't know for sure, but I don't see the benefit to speaking negatively about someone who you share a space with. Especially if you are serious about the claim. This seems like the worst place to air your grievances. It wouldn't be taken seriously and it'll make others in the space feel some type of way. It's almost snake-like 🐍 or rat-type 🐀behaviour. Both those labels are difficult to shake off once they get attached. Either way, not good. Putting someone down publicly, and saying that they don't deserve holding the badge, seems like it should be dealt with privately. Going this route and trying to debadge someone through market comments, it just seems like a weird way to farm attention and a little sliver of mana.
My suggestion would be to unify and bet 'yes' in the market. Gather all the trustworthy.ish badge holders and bet 'yes' . Might have ti regulate and enforce to make sure no one strays away. it'll be a better environment. free of the toxicity that can come from trying to judge and gatekeep a badge that you already own. There's more mana to gain on the side of yes anyways.

@higherLEVELING Lol why would I feel trustworthy-ish solidarity

@higherLEVELING re: "Yes there is atleast one other trustworthy.ish badge holder that needs needs to have their badge revoked. "

Correction

A badge holder needs to say there are 2 or more other holders who in their person opinion shouldn't have the badge.

@PseudonymousAlt I think you still need two such replies, no? I don't think Martin Randall committed to whether they thought there was one or two untrustworthy badgees. Or was there another comment I missed?

@Conflux but it's the trustworthy.ish gang (tw.ig).. You gotta rep. ur set. I imagine when two or more members get together, they start syncing up and know what the others are thinking... then start moving as one unit, similar to a megazord.

To any trustworthy user who thinks wants to express they don't agree with 2 or more of the choices, they must comment so, i cannot infer from trading.

@TheWiggleMan Just a comment saying yes and no will suffice as i will take your word for it

Trustworthy-ish users, @Conflux @jack @MartinRandall (the council), without snitching on who, do you think that all the other trustworthy-ish badges are given correctly in your personal opinion?

@TheWiggleMan I’d wanna see the list. Offhand I don’t remember anyone whose badge I object to

@Conflux very well

@Conflux here you go:

@EliezerYudkowsky, @memestiny, @ScottAlexander, @Aella, @BTE, @jack, @Yev, @ZviMowshowitz, @NathanpmYoung, @itsTomekK, @SneakySly, @MattP, @egroj, @dreev, @MartinRandall, @LivInTheLookingGlass, @LarsDoucet, @Conflux, @GavrielK, @NcyRocks, @MichaelWheatley, @dglid, @yaboi69, @TheSkeward, @Duncn, @a, @NuñoSempere, @CarsonGale, @Tetraspace, @BoltonBailey, @MatthewBarnett, @JacyAnthis, @Gabrielle, @CGPGrey, @KatjaGrace, @AndrewG, @MarcusAbramovitch

I hope that posting them as plaintext won't send them a notification, I don't wanna spam all of them.

Btw you can always find the latest list here:
manifold/common/src/envs/constants.ts

@MayMeta It’d be nice if BTE wrote more resolution criteria on some markets, and if Tomek clarified some of them more quickly. And I vaguely remember some debate over the resolution of Duncan multiple choice market about a world leader dying. But I don’t think any of these are, like, super bad, and I believe those users have solid records of resolving markets fairly most of the time. Again, I could be forgetting something.

Btw, philosophically, I’m not super in favor of having the badge be arbitrary, as it currently is. Although maybe something non-arbitrary would just be manipulated? Anyway, there are a good number of non-badged users who I consider trustworthy.

@TheWiggleMan ... ish?

Given that people have lost the badge I would not be surprised if 2+ more lost badges.

@MayMeta Thanks to @MayMeta for this list, of all the trustworthy badge users. Out of those, are there any 2 you think are not so trustworthy (regardless of their badge status)

@PseudonymousAlt to answer the original question as posed, "not all".

@MartinRandall gotcha! Need 1 more trustworthy badge holder's reply to resolve this no