Will we get a new biological weapon (like a virus, bacteria or fungi) before 2030
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32
Ṁ12562030
64%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Criteria for yes:
Used in an attack and killed at least 1 person
Compount was unknown before
A deliberate attack or accidental release/exposure counts
A modified version of a prior/natural vector counts.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Cytokine let's say:
Used in an attack and killed at least 1 person
Compount was unknown before
@SjoerdSpendel Does it have to be a deliberate attack or would accidental release/exposure count. And would a modified version of a prior/natural vector count.
@Cytokine both yes. But I needs to a new modified version. So the modification needs to be new.
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