Will Manifold guess the character I am thinking of?
16
149
330
resolved Jan 10
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve positively if anyone guesses the character I am thinking of (may be real or fictional) before the close date (a week from now). Each qualifying participant may make two guesses, in the comments. There is no limit to the total number of questions asked by Manifold collectively.

Asking "is it [character]" counts as a guess, as does asking a yes/no question to which I will reply one of "yes", "no", or "null" (which means I don't know, or the question isn't applicable, or for some other reason I'm unable to answer it yes/no).

To guess, you must be an active Manifold user and not an alt created to prey on markets where there's an advantage to having more bettors such as this one.

I will attempt to answer reasonably promptly (within 24 hours), and will not bet in my market.

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sold Ṁ23 of NO

I believe the main characters on Star Trek shows satisfying all current criteria are Jean-Luc Picard, William Riker, Geordi La Forge, Wesley Crusher, Benjamin Sisko, Julian Bashir, Miles O'Brien, Jake Sisko, Chakotay, Tom Paris, and Harry Kim. These can be run through by binary search in a max of 5 questions.

So, second question: does the character appear in the list I've written here?

bought Ṁ500 of YES

@TheSkeward Is it one of [Jean-Luc Picard, William Riker, Geordi La Forge, Wesley Crusher, Benjamin Sisko, Julian Bashir]?

@Yev Yes.

predicted YES

@TheSkeward Is it Jean-Luc Picard?

@Yev No.

@TheSkeward Does their name or surname start with the letter “B”?

@TheSkeward Does their name or surname start with the letter “W”?

predicted YES

I think that leaves only Geordi La Forge.

predicted YES

And we need someone else to make that guess

bought Ṁ5,000 of YES

Is it Geordi La Forge?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Is this character from a TV show generally considered to be in the sci-fi genre?

predicted YES

@TheSkeward From a Star Trek show?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@TheSkeward Well, my money’s on Picard. Also, @IsaacKing‘s earlier “is it human” answer helps a lot here!

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Since it's a male character from a TV show, we can probably bracket it by air date and genre. I think the YES bettors probably have this.

Is the character from a TV show?

@TheSkeward Alright. Is the character from a TV show that first aired after 2010?

predicted YES

@TheSkeward ...that first aired after 2000?

@KCS No.

predicted YES

@TheSkeward ...that first aired after 1985?

@KCS Yes.