This question will resolve to 'YES' if, before January 1st, 2030, it is publicly and credibly documented that Jensen Huang, co-founder and CEO of NVIDIA, has attained a net worth of one trillion US dollars or more.
Resolution Criteria:
Credible financial reporting or disclosure must confirm that Jensen Huang's net worth has reached or exceeded one trillion US dollars. This could include reports from major financial news organizations, disclosures from reliable financial analysis firms, or official statements from NVIDIA or Huang himself.
The net worth calculation should take into account all known assets and liabilities, including but not limited to: shares in NVIDIA or other companies, real estate holdings, cash and investments, and any significant debts or liabilities.
The resolution will consider the highest reliably reported net worth figure for Jensen Huang at any time before January 1st, 2030, even if his net worth subsequently falls below one trillion US dollars before that date.
I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with financial experts, to ensure that the criteria are met and that Jensen Huang's net worth has indeed reached or exceeded one trillion US dollars.
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Jensen owns 3.6% of Nvidia & it appears as if that’s the primary source of his net worth.
In order for him to be a trillionaire that would mean Nvidia would be a (1/0.036 = 27.77) 27.77 trillion dollar company?
So do people believe there’s a 24% chance that Nvidia will be a 27.77 trillion dollar company before 2030?
Is there something I’m missing? As that seems pretty unlikely imo
@elf I do think "will NVIDIA 10x in value" probably accounts for most of the probability of this happening.
That said, there are some other things that could in principle play a role:
he could get some crazy stock option package, increasing his NVIDIA stake
he could use some of his wealth to invest in a new company, of which he would then own a much larger share
we could have USD hyperinflation
South Carolina could discover 1.8 trillion in one of their bank accounts and accidentally give it to him
As you can see, there are many ways for this to occur.
@elf I think it's extremely plausible that AI chips will grow by more than 10x by 2030, and fairly plausible that it's more like 50-100x.
Nvidia's current market share and profit margin are very high and seem hard to sustain (there would be tons of money available for competitors) but they might do a good job preserving their position, or the AI industry might grow by enough to overcome an eroding market share.
I don't doubt that Nvidia could be worth much more in the future but the "27 trillion by 2030" is what I'm skeptical of.
Unlike software, Nvidia's growth is dependent on building out physical infrastructure & chip capacity (which is infamously constrained).
Nvidia, as it's fabless, is reliant on TSMC. The work is so highly specialized that you run into problems like this:
TSMC on Thursday said its under-construction chip fab in Arizona won't be up and running until at least 2025 because of a shortage of skilled
Even if we were to assume you’re right & the demand is there, we run into other questions:
How long does it take to train new workers in such a highly specialized field?
Even with all the capital flowing into AI, how likely is it that that supply could 100x or even 10x? What would that actually mean in terms of the coordination of energy, raw materials, labor, infrastructure etc.
How much more energy would need to be produced in order to facilitate such an increase in production & where would that energy come from?
How much would global wealth need to increase in order for a single company to have a 27 trillion market cap?
Maybe it's possible we get AGI & autonomous robots that do all of this for us by 2030, but that's a big if & a lot of societal changes that governments & the broader population would have to permit.
I could be missing something, but seems unlikely imo 🤷♂️