Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035 (23:59:59 UTC), the experimental synthesis and confirmation of at least one chemical compound containing meitnerium (atomic number 109) is published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or officially recognized by IUPAC.

For the purposes of this market:

• The detection must demonstrate chemical bonding or interaction involving meitnerium in single-atom / "atom-at-a-time" gas-phase or solution chemistry experiments (e.g., formation of a volatile halide, carbonyl, or oxide, characterized via thermochromatography or related techniques).

• Purely nuclear synthesis (producing unbonded metallic or ionized meitnerium nuclei) does not qualify.

• Purely theoretical, computational, or relativistic modeling papers predicting hypothetical meitnerium compounds do not qualify without experimental verification.

• Preprints (e.g., arXiv) do not trigger resolution until formally accepted and published in a recognized, peer-reviewed scientific journal.

If no peer-reviewed confirmation of an experimentally produced meitnerium compound is published by December 31, 2035, this market resolves to NO.

Background

Meitnerium ($Z = 109$) is a synthetic transactinide element first produced in 1982 at GSI Darmstadt. Due to very low production cross-sections and short isotope half-lives (the longest-lived confirmed isotope, $^{278}\text{Mt}$, has a half-life of approximately 4.5 to 8 seconds), meitnerium is among the lightest superheavy elements whose basic chemical properties have not yet been experimentally verified.

While adjacent elements like hassium ($Z = 108$) have had volatile compounds (such as $\text{HsO}_4$) successfully synthesized and characterized using automated gas-phase chromatography, chemistry experiments on meitnerium face hurdles in production rates and identifying sufficiently volatile chemical species (hypothesized candidates include $\text{MtF}_6$ or carbonyl complexes).

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