Will Trump or Putin do something at the meeting in Alaska that Manifold thinks is an embarrassing gaffe?
22
100แน€760
resolved Aug 28
Resolved as
50%

I will create a Manifold poll with the title "Did Trump or Putin do something at the meeting in Alaska that you think is an embarrassing gaffe?" with the following options:

  • Strong agree

  • Weak agree

  • Neutral/unsure

  • Weak disagree

  • Strong disagree

  • Lizardman

  • See results

Each strong agree adds 2 points, each weak agree adds 1 point, each weak disagree subtracts 1 point, each strong disagree subtracts 2 points, and all other options don't affect points. If the total points after closing is positive, this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.

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From the poll comments

Points calculation:

Strong_agree_votes = 5

Weak_agree_votes = 5

Weak_disagree_votes = 3

Strong_disagree_votes = 6

Net_points = Strong_agree_votes*(2) + Weak_agree_votes*(1) + Weak_disagree_votes*(-1) + Strong_disagree_votes*(-2)

= 5*(2) + 5*(1) + 3*(-1) + 6*(-2)

= 10 + 5 - 3 - 12

= 0

Huh, by sheer chance it was an exact draw

Looking back at the resolution criteria

If the total points after closing is positive, this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.

Hmmm, is zero positive? It's probably most fair to just resolve this 50% lol

sold แน€6 YES

I doubt Trump himself forgot the papers in the printer but it's still embarrassing IMO to even use a hotel printer https://www.npr.org/2025/08/16/nx-s1-5504196/trump-putin-summit-documents-left-behind

bought แน€20 NO

Betting NO solely to counter availability bias

Can't wait for Trump to refer to Putin as "The Late Great Rootin' Tootin' Putin" completely unprompted

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