This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time during Donald Trump’s presidential term (beginning January 20, 2025, and ending January 20, 2029, unless the term ends earlier or later due to impeachment, resignation, death, emergency extension, or other constitutional or extraordinary reasons), Putin, in his official capacity, states or declares that he has acquired sovereignty or primary/exclusive jurisdiction or control over any defined land territory within the U.S. state of Alaska, including via force, purchase, referendum or Russian court decision.
Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
Only explicit official claims or declarations that unambiguously assert sovereignty or control qualify.
Speculation, unofficial commentary, third-party analysis, or ambiguous rhetoric does not qualify.
The sole resolution sources will be Russian official state media and official Kremlin communications (e.g., presidential decrees, speeches, or state news agencies). No confirmation or recognition by the United States or international bodies is required.
Any historical claims or statements made prior to market creation of 16 January 2026 will not count.
Will Putin acquire sovereignty or take control of any part of Alaska by the end of 2026?
Market description / resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, Russia acquires sovereignty or jurisdiction or control over any defined land territory within the U.S. state of Alaska including its maritime borders through a binding legal instrument (e.g., order, enacted legislation, annexation, or executive action), including via force.
Russia currently controls part of Norwegian island. It may count.
Non-binding statements, threats, unofficial claims, negotiations, draft treaties, MOUs, military exercises, temporary incursions, cyber operations, airspace or maritime violations, basing/access agreements, or informal occupation without declared control do not qualify.
Any Russian or Soviet-era claims, rights, or historical control existing prior to market creation of 16 January 2026 will not count.
Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Minimum territory thresholds for resolution:
Maritime area: More than 100 square kilometers
Land area: More than 1 square kilometer above the high-tide line
Qualifying actions: A decree signed by Vladimir Putin or a Russian court decision that recognizes any part of Alaska's current U.S. territory (including maritime zones) as falling under Russian sovereignty or a Russian sovereign claim.
1,0001990 Agreement (Baker-Shevardnadze)
In 1990, the USSR and the United States signed an agreement on the maritime boundary.
The United States ratified it.
Russia, as the legal successor to the USSR, has never ratified it.
Russia’s position:
The agreement is not legally binding.
The boundary line is unfair, as it grants large areas of the sea to the United States.
Russia submitted a claim to the UN (through the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf) seeking:
an extension of its continental shelf in the Arctic,
including areas north of Alaska.
These claims concern seabed and subsoil rights (oil and gas), not territorial waters.
The United States has not ratified UNCLOS, which Russia uses in its legal argumentation. This is the most realistic area of long-term conflict.
If Vladimir Putin signs a decree, or if any Russian court issues a decision, by which any part of the current territory of Alaska, including its maritime zone, which is currently claimed by the United States and ratified by the United States as part of U.S. territory, with an area of more than 100 square kilometers of maritime area or more than 1 square kilometer of land above the high-tide line, is becoming recognized by Russia as falling under Russian sovereignty or a Russian sovereign claim, this will count.
1990 Agreement (Baker-Shevardnadze)
In 1990, the USSR and the United States signed an agreement on the maritime boundary.
The United States ratified it.
Russia, as the legal successor to the USSR, has never ratified it.
Russia’s position:
The agreement is not legally binding.
The boundary line is unfair, as it grants large areas of the sea to the United States.
Russia submitted a claim to the UN (through the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf) seeking:
an extension of its continental shelf in the Arctic,
including areas north of Alaska.
These claims concern seabed and subsoil rights (oil and gas), not territorial waters.
The United States has not ratified UNCLOS, which Russia uses in its legal argumentation. This is the most realistic area of long-term conflict.