Will OpenPhil think it's better to spend mana creating EA prediction markets at $1 rather than donate it to EA LTFF?
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If I email them about it, will the Open Philanthropy (OpenPhil) team think it is more positively impactful for me to spend mana creating prediction markets about Effective Altruism (EA) cause areas, like those I have created previously, at ~$1 each, rather than donating it to the EA Long Term Future Fund (LTFF) via Manifold Charity?

In the past, EA LTFF have given a grant to the founders of Manifold (https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future), and have also been one of the largest donation recipients via Manifold Charity.

OpenPhil have forecasting as a focus area, and have given grants to Metaculus before, but seemingly not to Manifold (https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/forecasting/). Therefore, they should hopefully be a more unbiased 3rd party.

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