In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
22
709
2040
16%
chance
For the purposes of this question, something is a "tragic mistake" if it seems so from the perspective of Karnosfky in 2040. So if rapid spending seemed the best course of action in expectation to Karnofsky_2022 but Karnofsky_2040 disagrees, this question resolves positively. If a question is later created on Metaculus to firm up tricky edge cases, I'll probably use those resolution criteria for this question as well. This question will resolve to either 0% or to 100% if Karnofsky makes any unambiguous statements on the topic, or to my own best judgment of what he actually thinks if he is being evasive. Close date updated to 2040-03-10 11:59 pm
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How does it resolve if he's dead?
Daniel, there is no capital required you can bet up to 20 in each market on the never never.
Don't want to lock up capital but he doesn't seem like the sort of guy to call things that seemed reasonable at the time "tragic mistakes".