https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c17v8y0z9z2o
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrg8zkz8d0o
Donald Trump recently posted an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus of Nazareth, and has previously also done this as the Pope. Will he make a similar third post, depicting himself as the prophet Muhammad, before the end of his second term?
The post can be on Truth Social, Twitter/X, Facebook etc. and may be posted either by his personal account or an official White House account. Retweets/shares of relevant images by these specified accounts will also count. The photo need not be AI-generated, e.g. it would suffice for Trump to dress up in a costume and post a photo of it. However, it would not suffice for Trump to dress up without posting a photo of it. If such a post appears before 12:00 on 20 Jan 2029 (US Eastern Time) this market resolves YES. If not, this market resolves NO. I will by default use my best judgement, but if resolution is a controversial grey area edge case then I may use a Manifold poll.
Inspired by /diracdeltafunk/will-donald-trump-tweet-an-image-of
Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how they will evaluate whether an image qualifies as depicting Trump as the prophet Muhammad:
A similar standard of proof will be used as in the Jesus market: the image must have such an extreme degree of visual similarity to recognized depictions of Muhammad that it seems beyond reasonable doubt the creator intended it as such
Since Islamic tradition generally forbids pictorial depictions of Muhammad, there is no single dominant visual version β multiple traditions will be considered (Persian miniature, Ottoman veiled, Kashmiri flame, medieval European, etc.)
Illustrative (non-exhaustive) traits that might be expected in a qualifying image include: a long white robe with a green shawl, darker skin tone, a dark beard, and Islamic-associated headwear (turban, kufi, taqiyah, keffiyeh, etc.)
If resolution is a genuinely ambiguous grey area, the creator may defer to a Manifold poll
1,000People are also trading
https://www.trumpstruth.org/statuses/37759
Tempted to make another market on whether he'll post an image of himself as Don Quixote XD
@Hakari As good as One Piece is, the original is a classic for a reason. It's hilarious. https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Don_Quixote
@marvingardens hmm, given that this market has unexpectedly taken off, you're right that some clarification is needed. Even though in this case the invocation of "best judgement" was duplicated from the inspiration market about Jesus (with me adding the poll caveat in case of controversy), it would still be wise for me to elaborate more on what my "best judgement" would actually entail.
My current line of thinking is that I should try to use a similar standard of proof as in the Jesus market. For that market, it seems it was counted because the posted image had such an extreme degree of visual similarity to mainstream religious depictions of Jesus that it seemed beyond reasonable doubt that the creator of the image could have intended otherwise, regardless of the fact Trump himself later denied it (I suspect due to the backlash rather than actual truth).
Specific visual features in the Jesus post:
Wearing a long loose-sleeved white robe with a red shawl, resembling artistic depictions of Jesus's attire
Rays of light shining from his empty hand, resembling artistic depictions of Jesus's holy energy
Touching with his other hand the forehead of a man in a bed wearing a hospital gown who in turn is shining further rays of light, resembling artistic depictions of Jesus healing the sick
Him being flanked on both sides by admiring onlookers, including one in prayer, and overlooked by apparent heavenly angels (albeit somewhat deformed by the faulty AI image generation), resembling common composition of artistic scenes centering on Jesus
Although there are multiple versions of Jesus depictions originating from different cultural contexts with widely varying appearances (e.g. early Roman, Islamic, Ethiopian, empirical reconstructions etc.), all of which should count in my opinion, the mainstream Western version originating from European Renaissance art is by far the most dominant, which makes for easier comparison.
Meanwhile, for Muhammad, the situation is different. Unlike Jesus, there are actual contemporary textual descriptions of his appearance. However, since Islamic cultural rules usually forbid pictoral depictions of Muhammad, such depictions are very rare in general, and thus there hasn't been the same degree of coalescence around a single dominant version with static traits. There are therefore still visually diverse competing versions (e.g. Persian miniature, Ottoman veiled, Kashmiri flame, medieval European, South Park, Charlie Hebdo, Google ImageFX etc.), such that it would be very time consuming to give detailed descriptions of every possibility in advance.
As an illustrative example though, assuming he uses the Google ImageFX version, a non-exhaustive list of traits I might expect include:
Again wearing a long white robe, but with a green shawl instead
Having a beard and darker skin tone
Wearing a turban, kufi, taqiyah, keffiyeh or other Islamic-associated headwear
Once again, if it ends up being a super ambiguous grey area, I'm willing to defer to a Manifold poll.
Also worth noting that he has praised Allah multiple times recently
https://www.trumpstruth.org/statuses/37602
@TheAllMemeingEye Also worth noting as well that some mainstream image AI tools such as Google ImageFX have zero aversion to creating images of the prophet Muhammad or even Allah. I would share the image proof, but I fear it may cause offense to muslim manifolders.