If human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade?
59%
chance

The emulations would not have to be uploads of specific human brains, nor would they need to be running in real-time.

A working definition of a human brain emulation could be a computer program that:

  1. Can perform any cognitive task at a standard equal or greater than the 10th percentile of the global biological human population

  2. Can consistently pass a strong adversarial Turing test

  3. Is known to have its cognition emerge entirely from internal structures and rules analogous to that of biological human brains down to the neuron level

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!
ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy