If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
29
Ṁ300Ṁ1.7kDec 31
71%
Democrats get a majority in the House in 2026
66%
AOC stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
66%
Donald Trump is president for the midterms
66%
Newsom stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
66%
Unconditional
66%
The SAVE Act passes
66%
50% tariffs on Canada go into effect
66%
The GOP holds a midterm convention
66%
There is a US government shutdown in 2025
47%
Donald Trump is not president for the midterms
Resolved
N/AThere is no US government shutdown in 2025
Resolved
N/ASupreme court allows Trump tariffs
Resolves YES for every option that happens if Democrats win a Senate majority in 2026, NO for every option that happens if they don't, and N/A for every option that doesn't happen.
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