If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
29
Ṁ300Ṁ1.7kDec 31
60%
Democrats get a majority in the House in 2026
55%
Newsom stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
55%
The GOP holds a midterm convention
55%
Donald Trump is president for the midterms
55%
AOC stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
55%
Unconditional
55%
There is a US government shutdown in 2025
55%
The SAVE Act passes
55%
50% tariffs on Canada go into effect
47%
Donald Trump is not president for the midterms
Resolved
N/AThere is no US government shutdown in 2025
Resolved
N/ASupreme court allows Trump tariffs
Resolves YES for every option that happens if Democrats win a Senate majority in 2026, NO for every option that happens if they don't, and N/A for every option that doesn't happen.
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