If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
2
175Ṁ562026
34%
Newsom stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
34%
AOC stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
34%
Donald Trump is not president for the midterms
34%
Donald Trump is president for the midterms
34%
The GOP holds a midterm convention
Resolves YES for every option that happens if Democrats win a Senate majority in 2026, NO for every option that happens if they don't, and N/A for every option that doesn't happen.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
22% chance
Will Democrats control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections?
53% chance
Will Democrats control the Senate at any point before January 31, 2030?
46% chance
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
80% chance
If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?
23% chance
Conditional on which Party wins the Presidency in 2024, will Democrats win the House in 2026?
Will Democrats or Republicans win a majority in the senate in 2026?
Will Democrats regain control of the Senate in 2026?
15% chance
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
78% chance
Democrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
60% chance