If Keir Starmer is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?
Politics•UK politics
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2025
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This resolves N/A if Keir Starmer is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the seats, and NO otherwise. Jan 15, 5:50pm: Clarification: Plurality of the seats among the parties making up the coalition, not necessarily the House of Commons. Jan 16, 2:04am: #Politics #UKPolitics #2024UKGeneralElection Jan 16, 2:05am: #KeirStarmer #UKLabourParty Close date updated to 2025-01-24 12:00 am
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bought Ṁ10 of NO

They're strong favorites, but polls are quite inaccurate in the UK historically, and also often swing quite wildly over only a couple of years (or even a single campaign in the case of 2017 general election.)

predicts NO

@DavidMathers Bear in mind that a lack of victory by this measure might still make Starmer Prime Minister. If the Tories win a plurality but not a majority, then most of the smaller parties (bar the tiny DUP) are likely to prefer Starmer as PM to Sunak or any other Tory leader.

EDIT: My mistake: the resolution criteria just requires Lab to be a plurality of seats in the government, rather than a plurality in parliament.

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