If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?

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Joe Biden is the current President of the USA, elected on a Biden/Harris in 2020 in a presidential race against Trump/Pence. He has stated to CNBC that he intends to run for reelection again, as an incumbent (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/2024-presidential-election-joe-biden-expects-to-run-for-reelection.html). One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Biden is to win the presidency, if he does run for reelection and is chosen as the Democratic the nominee. This resolves N/A if Joe Biden is not the Democratic nominee, and YES or NO depending on whether he becomes the president if he is the nominee. Jan 14, 11:02pm: #Politics #USPolitics #2024USPresidentialElection Jan 15, 5:44pm: #JoeBiden

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#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Joe Biden

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@mods na

I'm getting an error - assigning it to an admin

@Sinclair @ian are all of these markets which can't N/A having the same problem that is easy to teach me how to fix so I can resolve them as they come up?

I see bets that have no fees and contain 'sale' props, maybe this is an old misconverted dpm market, @JamesGrugett?

seems like a good assumption - Tetra created this market all the way back in Jan '22 (is this one of the first markets ever??)

@JamesGrugett any alternate way to NA this one?

@shankypanky James left Manifold, but I bet we could fix this if @ian is able to run a script to add the missing properties to all the objects associated with this market. 🙏 We can do this!

@Eliza Tried it again now that fees are turned off, still didn't work.

@Eliza yeah those bets are broken iiuc

Have a look at the other DNC candidates too:

what if he becomes the nominee but then withdraws (and therefore does not win the election)?

See electionbettingodds.com's estimates of P(president|nominee) for candidates, currently 51.7% for Biden https://electionbettingodds.com/ElectabilityDEM.html

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