If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?
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Joe Biden is the current President of the USA, elected on a Biden/Harris in 2020 in a presidential race against Trump/Pence. He has stated to CNBC that he intends to run for reelection again, as an incumbent (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/2024-presidential-election-joe-biden-expects-to-run-for-reelection.html). One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Biden is to win the presidency, if he does run for reelection and is chosen as the Democratic the nominee. This resolves N/A if Joe Biden is not the Democratic nominee, and YES or NO depending on whether he becomes the president if he is the nominee. Jan 14, 11:02pm: #Politics #USPolitics #2024USPresidentialElection Jan 15, 5:44pm: #JoeBiden
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AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

what if he becomes the nominee but then withdraws (and therefore does not win the election)?

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Tetraspacebought Ṁ2 of YES
See electionbettingodds.com's estimates of P(president|nominee) for candidates, currently 51.7% for Biden https://electionbettingodds.com/ElectabilityDEM.html