If Democrats have 51 seats in the Senate after the midterms, will the Senate break legislative filibuster?

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resolved Jan 3

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves positively if: • The Democrats have exactly 51 seats after the midterms, else N/A • The U.S. Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn, else NO.

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@Tetraspace What election was this about? Based on the creation date, it was about the 2022 elections, but the market is still open long past then.

@Gabrielle Dems got exactly 51 seats in the 2022 midterms (49D + 2I caucusing with D) so it resolves either YES or NO when senators are appointed after the 2024 election based on whether filibuster is ended by then

the "exactly 51 seats" part makes this pretty unlikely -- a 50-50, 52-48, or Republican-controlled Senate are all likely.

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