If Democrats have 51 seats in the Senate after the midterms, will the Senate break legislative filibuster?
13
85
200
2025
0.9%
chance
Resolves positively if: • The Democrats have exactly 51 seats after the midterms, else N/A • The U.S. Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn, else NO.
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bought Ṁ20 of NO

the "exactly 51 seats" part makes this pretty unlikely -- a 50-50, 52-48, or Republican-controlled Senate are all likely.