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MANIFOLD
If Count Binface wins in Clacton in 2026, will Nigel Farage be in parliament a year later?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ35
2030
35%
chance

Resolves N/A if Count Binface doesn't win in Clacton. Otherwise, one year after the date of the 2026 Clacton by-election, resolves YES if Nigel Farage is in Parliament in any seat, and NO otherwise.

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