How many North Korean defectors will there be in 2026?
4
Ṁ250Ṁ9292027
329 defectors
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
93%
Above 50
87%
Above 100
83%
Above 150
66%
Above 200
34%
Above 250
11%
Above 500
4%
Above 1,000
2%
Above 1,500
2%
Above 2,000
1.9%
Above 2,500
Resolves according to https://unikorea.go.kr/web/eng_unikorea/contents/statistics_defectors, or the corresponding page if this is moved.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@AlanTennant 34k over all years, but this market is just the number for 2026 (excluding previous and future years)
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2026?
91% chance
Will the population of North Korea surpass that of the South before 2038
16% chance
Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?
10% chance
Will North Korea lose King Jong Un as a leader by the end of 2026?
12% chance
Will South Korea become more authoritarian in 2026?
26% chance
Will the south korean fertility rate increase in 2026?
60% chance
Will Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2026?
28% chance
Will there be women left of reproductive age in South Korea in 2064?
90% chance
Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?
16% chance
North-/South Korea, what happens till 2030?