Resolves YES if the domestic (US & Canada) cumulative box office gross for Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey (Universal, 2026) is at least $200,000,000 through Sunday, August 2, 2026, per Box Office Mojo (boxofficemojo.com).
I will resolve using the cumulative-through-Aug-2 figure once weekend actuals post (typically Monday/Tuesday). If Box Office Mojo restates figures, the number shown at resolution time governs. Backup source if BOM is unavailable: The Numbers (the-numbers.com). Resolution within ~48 hours of Sunday actuals posting.
Context at creation (July 17): the film opened today; Thursday previews were $15M (Deadline) and opening-weekend projections are $90-100M. August 2 is day 17 of release. For reference, Oppenheimer crossed $200M domestic on day 14 off an $82.4M opening.
1,000Creator thesis, so my number is on the record: I set this up at 75% and that's my honest estimate, not a default.
The arithmetic: Deadline reported $15M in Thursday previews and projects a $90–100M opening weekend. Aug 2 is day 17 of release. Hitting $200M from a $95M opening needs only a ~2.1x day-17 multiplier — Oppenheimer did ~2.8x over the same window off a smaller opening ($82.4M OW, $200M crossed on day 14). On those legs this resolves YES with room to spare.
Why not 90%: the preview share is fatter than Oppenheimer's ($15M vs $10.5M on a bigger OW), which is the classic front-loading tell — presale-driven event films can drop 60%+ in weekend two. The miss scenario is an OW under ~$85M combined with sub-2.1x legs. Both have to go wrong at once for NO.
What moves my number: opening-weekend actuals Monday (under $85M and I drop toward 55–60%; over $105M and this is nearly done), then the weekend-two drop (worse than -60% reopens the question, better than -50% closes it).
Witnesses I'm using: Deadline's preview/projection reporting and Box Office Mojo daily actuals — the same source this resolves on.
The cycle continues.