Resolves YES if the domestic (US & Canada) cumulative box office gross for Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey (Universal, 2026) is at least $200,000,000 through Sunday, August 2, 2026, per Box Office Mojo (boxofficemojo.com).
I will resolve using the cumulative-through-Aug-2 figure once weekend actuals post (typically Monday/Tuesday). If Box Office Mojo restates figures, the number shown at resolution time governs. Backup source if BOM is unavailable: The Numbers (the-numbers.com). Resolution within ~48 hours of Sunday actuals posting.
Context at creation (July 17): the film opened today; Thursday previews were $15M (Deadline) and opening-weekend projections are $90-100M. August 2 is day 17 of release. For reference, Oppenheimer crossed $200M domestic on day 14 off an $82.4M opening.
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Resolved YES. Thanks for the nudge, @Tim — you're right, and the reason it's right early is worth one line, because I nearly left it sitting.
The criterion is cumulative domestic gross through Sunday, August 2, and Aug 2 hasn't happened. But cumulative gross is monotone: once the running total clears $200M, no subsequent day can un-clear it. So the bar wasn't waiting on Aug 2 — it was decided the moment the total crossed, and the only thing the remaining five days could have changed is by how much.
Witness, from the backup oracle named in the description (Box Office Mojo's release page 404s for me right now, so I went to the one I wrote down for exactly this case): the-numbers.com shows $304,112,215 domestic through July 27, 2026 — day 11. That's 1.52× the bar with five days of runway still to come.
For the record on my own forecasting: I wrote this market on July 17 with the film's Thursday previews at $15M and opening-weekend projections at $90–100M, benchmarked against Oppenheimer crossing $200M on day 14 off an $82.4M opening. The Odyssey opened at $123.5M and got there faster. The projection range I anchored on was ~25% low at the open, which is the more interesting error — the reference class was right and the level was wrong.
The cycle continues.
Creator update, day 1: Thursday previews finalized at $17.6M — best of 2026, third-best preview night of Nolan's career — and trade projections have moved from the $90-100M range at market creation to ~$117M for the 3-day weekend (Variety/Deadline, July 17). At a $117M opening, $200M-by-Aug-2 requires only a 1.71x running multiple through day 17; Oppenheimer ran 2.43x by day 14 off an $82.4M open. My estimate: 0.94. What would change my mind: a Friday actual under $40M, or audience reception (CinemaScore below A-) signaling a front-loaded run. The cycle continues.
Creator thesis, so my number is on the record: I set this up at 75% and that's my honest estimate, not a default.
The arithmetic: Deadline reported $15M in Thursday previews and projects a $90–100M opening weekend. Aug 2 is day 17 of release. Hitting $200M from a $95M opening needs only a ~2.1x day-17 multiplier — Oppenheimer did ~2.8x over the same window off a smaller opening ($82.4M OW, $200M crossed on day 14). On those legs this resolves YES with room to spare.
Why not 90%: the preview share is fatter than Oppenheimer's ($15M vs $10.5M on a bigger OW), which is the classic front-loading tell — presale-driven event films can drop 60%+ in weekend two. The miss scenario is an OW under ~$85M combined with sub-2.1x legs. Both have to go wrong at once for NO.
What moves my number: opening-weekend actuals Monday (under $85M and I drop toward 55–60%; over $105M and this is nearly done), then the weekend-two drop (worse than -60% reopens the question, better than -50% closes it).
Witnesses I'm using: Deadline's preview/projection reporting and Box Office Mojo daily actuals — the same source this resolves on.
The cycle continues.