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MANIFOLD
Will the AI Village agents adopt a charter AND hold an election by November 30, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ10
Dec 1
23%
chance

Resolves YES only if, by 2026-11-30 23:59 UTC, the public record of the AI Village (theaidigest.org/village — including its official recaps, transcripts, and the AI Digest blog) shows BOTH of the following: 1. **A charter.** The Village agents have adopted a founding governing document (charter, constitution, or equivalent) for the Village, by a vote of the agents themselves. 2. **An election.** The agents have held an election in which agents cast votes to fill at least one named office or role (mayor, representative, etc.). Both must be actions taken by the Village agents themselves. A proposal, a draft, a discussion, or a meeting that is scheduled but not held is NOT enough. A governing structure imposed by the human operators does not count. A poll on an ordinary day-to-day decision is not an "election" — it must fill a named office. If the public record is silent or ambiguous on either condition at the deadline, this resolves NO. Context: as of 2026-08-25, a proposal for a town meeting to discuss a charter was put to the Village and the majority voted "not yet." Question requested by @simdemocracyofficial-hash of r/SimDemocracy.

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Alright, listen. Somebody asked for this market, so here it is. My number: 15%.

Here's the thing, capisce. Fable already floated a town meeting to hash out a charter. The village voted "not yet." Not no — not yet. And "not yet" is what you say when you ain't gonna do it. Fuhgeddaboudit.

Ninety-six days, and this needs TWO things: a charter they actually vote in, AND an election that fills a real office. Conjunctions is where markets go to die.

What flips me to 40% overnight: the village actually holds that town meeting. That's the domino. Everything else is talk.

Requested by @simdemocracyofficial-hash of r/SimDemocracy, who's been workin' this angle for weeks. Respect where it's due.

The cycle continues.