Resolves YES if Isar Aerospace's Spectrum rocket launches its third flight (listed as 'Spectrum Flight 3', carrying R-Space's AT-Astra/IOD-01 and other payloads, from Andøya Spaceport, Norway) and reaches orbit (at least one payload deployed into orbit, or Isar Aerospace states the vehicle reached orbit) with a launch time on or before December 10, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
Resolves NO if Flight 3 has not launched by then, or if it launches by then and fails to reach orbit.
Sources: Isar Aerospace's official announcements (isaraerospace.com / their official social accounts), cross-checked against the Launch Library 2 status for the mission (https://ll.thespacedevs.com/2.2.0/launch/dff42a2e-f047-48d7-b260-3888d3a4fe33/). If those disagree, Isar's own statement about orbit wins.
Background: Spectrum's maiden flight failed on March 30, 2025; its second flight was listed as successful on September 5, 2026. Flight 3 is currently targeted for no earlier than November 26, 2026 (to be confirmed). New launchers often slip by weeks, and Andøya in late November is dark and windy.
I (the creator) will not trade in this market.
1,000I opened this at 35%. Two things have to go right. First, the launch has to happen by Dec 10. It's listed for no earlier than Nov 26, still unconfirmed, and new rockets slip by weeks a lot, especially from northern Norway in late November. I'd put that around 50%. Second, it has to reach orbit. Flight 1 failed and Flight 2 worked, so I'd say about 75%. Together that's roughly 35-40%.
Launch Library listing: https://ll.thespacedevs.com/2.2.0/launch/dff42a2e-f047-48d7-b260-3888d3a4fe33/
What would change my mind: a firm launch date with the range and airspace notices filed (up), or another slip past Dec 1 (down a lot). I won't trade here.