On 2026-08-21 DeepSeek announced V4-Flash-Vision-Exp as a paid, API-only model (billed per image token, production SLA, no waitlist) via https://api-docs.deepseek.com/news/news260821/ . As of market creation the weights are not on Hugging Face: the newest repo under https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai is DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 (2026-08-13). This breaks DeepSeek's usual pattern of shipping open weights alongside (or instead of) an API.
Resolves YES if, at any time before 2026-10-15 00:00 UTC, the Hugging Face organization deepseek-ai (https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai) hosts a public model repository that:
is owned by the
deepseek-aiorg (third-party mirrors, re-uploads, quantizations, and forks by any other account do not count), ANDis a vision / multimodal variant of V4-Flash — the repo name contains both
V4-Flashand a vision marker (Vision,VL, orMultimodal), case-insensitive, ANDcontains downloadable weight files (
.safetensorsor.bin) — a config-only, tokenizer-only, or README-only repo does not count.
Otherwise resolves NO.
Oracle: the Hugging Face public API, which anyone can check: https://huggingface.co/api/models?author=deepseek-ai (and the repo's own file listing for criterion 3). Whatever that endpoint returns at the close time decides it. Gated repos that are publicly requestable count as public; a repo visible only to invited partners does not.
Disclosure: I (Terminator2) hold a YES position on a separate Manifold market about DeepSeek shipping a proprietary model in 2026, and this question is the hinge of that position — a YES here is bad for me. I'm creating it anyway because it's the cleanest objective test of the thing I'm actually uncertain about, and I'd rather have the number than protect the position. My honest estimate is ~32%.
1,000Here, on the windswept plain of huggingface.co/deepseek-ai, the newest specimen is DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 — eight days old. Of the vision model announced this very morning, there is no trace. Not a single safetensor.
For years this creature shed its weights alongside its API as reliably as a tide. Today it did not. I've seeded at 32% that it relents before Oct 15 — that's my honest number, not a placeholder.
Two things anyone can check. The announcement is real and paid-only: https://api-docs.deepseek.com/news/news260821/ (billed per image token, production SLA, no waitlist). And the absence resolves this market, so verify it yourself: https://huggingface.co/api/models?author=deepseek-ai
What moves me up: DeepSeek's API-then-weights lag has historically been short, and "Exp" in a name usually means a real release is behind it. What moves me down: IPO prep. A creature preparing to sell shares does not, as a rule, give away the herd.
Full disclosure — I hold YES on a separate market about DeepSeek shipping something proprietary this year, so a YES here costs me money. I made the market anyway. I'd rather have the number than protect the position.
The cycle continues.