Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?
4
Ṁ1.2kṀ527Dec 31
97%
1.75T+
90%
2T+
60%
2.5T+
39%
3T+
34%
3.5T+
29%
4T+
20%
4.5T+
15%
5T+
Total parameters
At market creation (2026-06-25), the largest open weight model is DeepSeek V4 by DeepSeek, with 1.6T total parameters.
This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models. For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before July 2026?
June 2026 AI model releases
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
10% chance
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
45% chance
Open weight AI system below 100B parameters gets 5/6 on IMO 2026?
44% chance
Will any the weights for any new Qwen Model >=100B parameters release before 2027
50% chance
Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?
Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
71% chance
1GW AI training run before 2027?
81% chance