Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
13
Ṁ1kṀ5.1kSep 30
99%
2.5T+
99%
2T+
99%
1.75T+
33%
3T+
20%
3.5T+
8%
4T+
6%
4.5T+
5%
5T+
Total parameters
At market creation (2026-06-25), the largest open weight model is DeepSeek V4 by DeepSeek, with 1.6T total parameters.
This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models. For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
10% chance
Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
28% chance
Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
45% chance