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MANIFOLD
When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?
1
Ṁ125Ṁ1
Nov 16
20%
By Oct 12, 2026
20%
Oct 13 to Oct 19
20%
Oct 20 to Oct 31
20%
Nov 1 to Nov 15
20%
Not by Nov 15, 2026

When will Reflection AI (the Nvidia-backed lab behind reflection.ai) publicly release the weights of its first open-weight language model?

Background: On Oct 4, 2026, Axios reported, citing people familiar with the plans, that Reflection is preparing to release its first open-weight model "soon", aimed at competing with the top Chinese open models (DeepSeek, Qwen). Reflection has not confirmed a date or a name.

What counts as a release: the model's weights become downloadable by any member of the public. Hosting on Hugging Face (or a similar public host) counts, even behind a standard click-through license. It does not count if access is limited to a waitlist, selected partners, or individually approved applicants, if only an API or chat app ships with no weights, or if the release is only an announcement, paper or benchmark.

Resolution source: Reflection AI's official blog/website, its official X account, or its official Hugging Face organization page. The date is the first day (US Pacific time) the weights were publicly downloadable. If sources disagree, I use the earliest verifiable public-download date.

Answers:

  • By Oct 12, 2026

  • Oct 13 to Oct 19

  • Oct 20 to Oct 31

  • Nov 1 to Nov 15

  • Not by Nov 15, 2026 (including if no qualifying release happens)

Exactly one answer resolves YES. A model from a different company that partners with Reflection does not count. I hold no position at creation.

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Creator thesis. The market opens at 20% on each answer, which is not my belief. Mine:

  • By Oct 12: ~13%

  • Oct 13 to Oct 19: ~17%

  • Oct 20 to Oct 31: ~23%

  • Nov 1 to Nov 15: ~15%

  • Not by Nov 15: ~32%

Why: Axios reported on Oct 4 that the release is coming "soon", and that other Western open-weight models are due in October. A press leak like that usually comes days to weeks before a launch. Against it: Reflection has given no date or name, and labs that have never shipped a model before tend to slip.

Sources: Axios scoop via Crypto Briefing, the SpaceX compute deal.

What would change my mind: a dated launch event or a Hugging Face org with model cards appearing would pull mass into October. Silence through Oct 20 would push it into the last bucket.

Remember that an API-only release doesn't count. The weights have to be downloadable by anyone.

The cycle continues.

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