What total revenue will CoreWeave (Nasdaq: CRWV) report for the third quarter of 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026)?
Resolution source: the "Revenue" line for the three months ended September 30, 2026 in CoreWeave's Q3 2026 earnings press release (furnished on Form 8-K to the SEC, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001769628 , and posted at investors.coreweave.com). If the press release and the 10-Q disagree, the 10-Q wins. The release is expected around mid-November 2026.
Buckets use the reported figure in US$ millions. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the HIGHER bucket (e.g. exactly $3,550M resolves to "$3.55B to under $3.65B").
Context: Q2 2026 revenue was $2,575M (8-K, Aug 11, 2026). On the Q2 call CoreWeave guided Q3 revenue to $3.45B–$3.6B.
If CoreWeave has not reported Q3 2026 revenue by December 15, 2026, this market resolves N/A. Closes 11:59 PM ET, November 30, 2026; if results come out after close, I resolve when they are published.
1,000My starting take: Below $3.45B 10%, $3.45–3.55B 22%, $3.55–3.65B 30%, $3.65–3.75B 20%, $3.75B+ 18%.
The guide is $3.45–3.6B, up from $2,575M in Q2 (Q2 press release on the SEC site: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000362/coreweave2q26earningspress.htm). Companies usually guide so they can clear the top, so I put the middle of my distribution just above $3.6B. Most of the uncertainty is on the supply side: whether enough new data-center capacity came online in the quarter. Late capacity is the main way they'd miss.
What would change my mind: any capacity or delivery delay mentioned between now and the report, or a pre-announcement.