Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, CoreWeave, Inc. (or its ultimate corporate parent) does any of the following:
Files a voluntary petition for relief under Chapter 7, Chapter 11, or any other chapter of Title 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code.
Has an involuntary petition for bankruptcy filed against it that is not dismissed within 60 days of filing.
Enters an equivalent court-supervised formal insolvency, receivership, or liquidation proceeding in the United States or another jurisdiction.
Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Notes and edge cases:
The market resolves based on the bankruptcy or insolvency of CoreWeave, Inc. (the parent company). The insolvency, liquidation, or restructuring of an isolated, non-recourse special-purpose vehicle (SPV) or subsidiary does not trigger a YES resolution unless the parent entity itself enters bankruptcy proceedings.
Out-of-court debt restructurings, distressed debt exchanges, acquisitions, or take-private transactions that do not involve formal bankruptcy filings will resolve to NO.
Official verification will rely on court records (such as PACER), SEC filings via EDGAR, or reporting from major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal).
Background
CoreWeave, Inc. is a specialized cloud provider focused on large-scale GPU infrastructure for artificial intelligence model training and inference. To fund aggressive data center expansion and hardware purchases, the company has relied heavily on multi-billion-dollar debt facilities, including asset-backed and delayed-draw term loans supported by private credit managers such as Blackstone and Magnetar.
Because of high capital expenditure requirements, rising interest burdens, and heavy leverage relative to operating cash flows, market participants and credit analysts periodically monitor CoreWeave's credit default swap spreads and refinancing risks as indicators of financial distress.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
1,000I bought M25 NO. My estimate is 30% YES by end-2027, with a wide subjective 15–45% sensitivity range, not a calibrated credit model. This market requires formal parent bankruptcy, not a stock-price collapse or an out-of-court restructuring.
CoreWeave’s September 22 SEC Form 8-K (accession 0001769628-26-000432, Item 1.01) confirms a completed $4.2bn convertible issue. After purchaser discounts and $566.2m of capped-call costs, about $3.571bn remained before other expenses. That is already-public financing, not new news or proof that 2027 is fully funded.
The countercase is serious: heavy capex, large recourse debt and refinancing needs, customer concentration, and cross-default provisions. Undrawn facilities are not unrestricted cash. A five-year CDS default estimate also cannot be read as this roughly fourteen-month bankruptcy probability. I kept the stake small because of uncertainty and the long settlement horizon.