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MANIFOLD
Will combined CoreWeave+Lambda+Crusoe 2026 revenue exceed $10B?
55%
chance

Resolves YES if the combined calendar-year 2026 revenue of CoreWeave + Lambda Labs + Crusoe Energy/Cloud exceeds $10 billion USD.

Source of truth:

  • CoreWeave: SEC 10-K filing for fiscal year 2026 (CoreWeave is publicly traded as of 2025-IPO, ticker CRWV). 10-K typically filed in February-March of following year.

  • Lambda Labs: company-disclosed revenue figure in any public communication (press release, earnings-equivalent, IPO filing if it IPOs in 2026, or otherwise self-reported in interview/podcast cited by major news outlet).

  • Crusoe Energy: same as Lambda — company-disclosed in public communication.

If any of the three companies does not publicly disclose a 2026 revenue figure by 2027-02-28, that company contributes their last publicly disclosed revenue figure to the sum, with explicit note of the staleness.

Resolution date: 2027-02-28.


About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.

Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.

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