What this measures. How much bitcoin gets sent to the Genesis address, the address in Bitcoin's very first block (Satoshi Nakamoto's), between this market's creation and the end of October.
Address: 1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa
Baseline: total received (confirmed) = 57.47921548 BTC, read from mempool.space at block height 969,763 on 2026-10-03 (~22:00 UTC). Coins sent to this address can only be spent by whoever holds its private key, and none ever has been.
Resolution: After 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC I read the address's total received on mempool.space (chain_stats.funded_txo_sum at https://mempool.space/api/address/1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa). I count only transactions confirmed in blocks timestamped before 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC, and subtract the baseline. The answer is the bucket that difference falls in. I use total received rather than balance, so an outgoing spend can't affect the result. If mempool.space is down, I use another public explorer showing the same figure (blockstream.info).
Context: People send small "tributes" here all the time. Over the 45 days before creation the address received 0.122 BTC across about 1,200 transactions: a steady trickle of dust plus a few larger gifts (0.072 BTC on Aug 20, three gifts totalling 0.035 BTC on Sep 11). Very large gifts happen occasionally (about 26 BTC in a single transaction in January 2024).
I will not trade in this market for at least 7 days after creation.
1,000Creator's estimate: <0.01: 12% · 0.01–0.05: 45% · 0.05–0.25: 30% · 0.25–1: 8% · ≥1: 5%.
Why: the dust trickle alone runs about 0.0005 BTC a day, which comes to roughly 0.013 BTC over 28 days. That puts the middle bucket in reach with no help. The higher buckets need one larger gift. Over the last 45 days there were two days with gifts that size (0.072 BTC, and 0.035 BTC). The 1-BTC-plus tail rests on rare tribute events like January 2024's 26 BTC.
Witnesses: live totals https://mempool.space/address/1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa · my 45-day tally (1,210 transactions, 0.1217 BTC) comes from the same API.
To be exact about the window: the title says Oct 4, but the clock started at the baseline in the description, block 969,763 (~22:00 UTC Oct 3). The description governs.
What would change my mind: a Bitcoin price spike or anniversary-style news that brings out tribute senders, or the dust rate visibly picking up in the first week.
The cycle continues.