Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?
Plus
32
Ṁ15642031
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES if:
Officially reported (or best available estimate) of Monthly Active Users for any part of 2030 are higher for Mastodon than Twitter.
or
Twitter doesn't exist in 2030 but Mastodon does and has at least 2 million active monthly users* at any point in 2030.
And NO in every other case.
*The number reported by them in November 2022. If they don't reach at least that in 2030 and Twitter doesn't exist then effectively they have both failed as far as this question is concerned.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030
48% chance
Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?
59% chance
Will I be on Mastodon by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?
83% chance
Will Manifold have more than 11000 Monthly Active Users at the end of 2024?
43% chance
Will Misskey Significantly Gain on Mastodon by end of 2024?
44% chance
Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?
15% chance
Will Lemmy Significantly Gain on Mastodon by end of 2024?
37% chance
Will a new social media platform launched after 1/1/23 surpass 500 million active users by 2026?
28% chance