Iceland announced its decision to participate depends on whether Israel is allowed to participate. The Netherlands is having similar talks in private. Slovenia has asked for the voting system to be reviewed and has indicated that “it will not participate if Israel participates”. Spain's national television has confirmed that Benidorm Fest will go ahead regardless of whether the winner goes to Eurovision, meaning there's a possibility it'll decide not to participate. Irish broadcaster RTÉ has announced Ireland won't participate if Israel takes part.
Israel has confirmed its participation in Eurovision.
Other countries that state they might withdraw because Israel is participating might be added. Countries that withdraw because of technical issues or ambiguous reasons will not be added to this market.
I will not bet on this market.
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in the case Israel agrees to a ceasefire and starts working in a peace plan, some broadcasters may reconsider their conditional withdrawal
I’m no longer assuming 80-90%
For Iceland in my view the 76% is over-rated as of today, but I won’t buy NO because this may change in a few days.
The most recent official statement I could find is:
“The director general of Ríkisútvarpið (RÚV) says that if the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) decides that Israel will be allowed to take part in next year’s Eurovision, it is possible that Iceland will withdraw from the contest.”
https://www.ruv.is/english/2025-09-09-iceland-may-not-take-part-in-eurovision-if-israel-does-453021
For Spain, Ireland and Netherlands it was quite easy to find in their broadcasters website the official memo with a very clear message.
For Slovenia I didn’t find the communication (it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist), but I found a piece of news referring to their conditional withdrawal, although there are other pieces of news with a less explicit message.
As I live in Spain, I am more familiar with my country’s position, and therefore more confident in the credibility of its conditional withdrawal. For months, the prime minister and other government members have been intensifying BDS-related pressure on Israel. The culture minister has explicitly stated that Spain will push to ban Israel from Eurovision and, if that fails, will withdraw from the contest.
RTVE’s governing board voted 10–4 in favor of conditional withdrawal, making it highly unlikely they will reverse their stance in December if Israel is accepted. RTVE has also announced that it will not broadcast the Eurovision Song Contest in 2026 if Israel is allowed to participate.
In my view the recent public statements are quite clear:
• RTÉ (Ireland): “Ireland will not take part in the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest, if the participation of Israel goes ahead” RTE 12th September
• RTV SLO (Slovenia): “If Israel participates in the Eurovision Song Contest, we will not take part in it, is the clear position of RTV Slovenia.” RTV SLO 12th September
• AVROTROS (Netherlands): “AVROTROS' participation in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is not possible as long as Israel is admitted by the EBU” AVROTROS
• RTVE (Spain): “Spain will withdraw from Eurovision if Israel continues in the contest.” RTVE 16th September