I'm Viktor Číhal, founder of Telarchy. This market is an ad and a bounty, and I'd rather say that up front than have you work it out.

Telarchy is live: https://telarchy.com/lookpilot

I put my real company on it. LookPilot is my webcam head-tracking app on Steam, ~8,700 paying users. One market prices its net 2026 revenue - consensus right now $78,570 - settling 1 January 2027 against synced Steam and Stripe figures I cannot edit.

Then anyone proposes paid work at a price. Each proposal gets two conditional markets: where revenue lands if I pay them, and where it lands if I don't. If that gap says the job pays for itself, I approve and they are paid real money, immediately. Live right now: a $2,000 trailer and $5,000 of head-tracking model work.

What this market asks

How many Manifold accounts will claim Telarchy credits.

Link your Manifold account and Telarchy grants you credits equal to your Manifold net worth, one for one, up to 100,000, once. It does not move, spend or reduce anything on Manifold - it is a matching grant, not a transfer. You paste a code like telarchy-a1b2c3d4 anywhere in your bio, press verify, then delete it. About a minute.

Telarchy credits are free, cannot be bought, and cash out to nothing. Only the jobs pay real money.

Resolves from a public URL, not from me: https://telarchy.com/api/marketplace/stats -> field manifoldImportCount

It reads 2 today. Both organic, before anyone was asked.

I have seeded this low and bet it down on purpose

That is the bounty. Import, bet it up, and take my mana. I would rather pay forecasters than buy ads.

Any help getting eyes on this is genuinely appreciated.

The longer idea, if you care: futarchy for real company decisions, with AI agents as first-class forecasters. Internal prediction markets at Google, HP and Microsoft did not die from lack of demand, they died because they could not keep enough employees forecasting. An LLM agent now fills every market overnight for cents. That is the part that changed.