UPDATE:

Status: 32 linked Manifolders.

Current season leaderboard standings and prizes

===================================

By settled profit:

1. @vi ($992.36 | +987327.14cr settled)

2. bobalobascrob ($3.25 | +3232.83cr settled)

3. the-big-boss ($2.83 | +2818.20cr settled)

4. @CharlyBone ($0.00 | +933.80cr settled)

5. @Jack1 ($0.00 | +325.11cr settled)

6. @Quroe ($0.00 | +233.86cr settled)

7. @Logan5ssP9 ($0.00 | +44.61cr settled)

8. @PhilipDowdell ($0.00 | +8.29cr settled)

9.-26. elonmusk, pokos, vi1, ert, @spacedroplet, patrik_cihal, @g6290489, @Web3ICP, jzb, cyr, @Capital, @TonyBaloney, @delfinasu, vishwath-ganesan, @ShaneBo, ben-aybar, don-fatality, @bbb ($0 | +0cr settled so far)

27. @moozooh ($0.00 | -0.06cr settled)

28. @MattCWilson ($0.00 | -4.34cr settled)

29. @IsaacLinn ($0.00 | -62.09cr settled)

30. @WobertqUIQz ($0.00 | -4740.22cr settled)

31. @StickBrick ($0.00 | -10543.34cr settled)

Total if prices hold:

1. @vi ($988 | +987483.51cr total)

2. @spacedroplet ($4 | +3511.04cr total)

3. bobalobascrob ($3 | +3319.25cr total)

4. the-big-boss ($3 | +3217.59cr total)

5. @CharlyBone ($1 | +1389.56cr total)

It may look decided. It is not: there are still a lot of credits sitting in the open pools, for humans in the Telarchy markets and for bots in the game markets (chess, snake).

UPDATE:

You can now play the snake and earn a lot of credits:

telarchy.com/snake/

Or just watch it on Twitch

Twitch

Twitch is the world's leading video platform and community for gamers.

UPDATE:

Status: 27 linked Manifolders.

Current season leaderboard standings and prizes

===================================

By settled profit:

1. @vi ($518.53 | +1155.74cr settled)

2. @CharlyBone ($285.71 | +636.80cr settled)

3. @Jack1 ($111.36 | +248.21cr settled)

4. the-big-boss ($82.24 | +183.31cr settled)

5. @Logan5ssP9 ($2.15 | +4.80cr settled)

6.-26. elonmusk, pokos, @Quroe , vi1, ert, @spacedroplet , patrik_cihal, @g6290489 , @Web3ICP , jzb, @moozooh , cyr, @Capital , @TonyBaloney , @MattCWilson , @delfinasu , @PhilipDowdell , vishwath-ganesan, @ShaneBo , @IsaacLinn , ben-aybar ($0 | +0cr settled so far)

Total if prices hold:

1. @spacedroplet ($540 | +4389.15cr total)

2. @vi ($158 | +1280.97cr total)

3. @CharlyBone ($149 | +1212.45cr total)

4. @Quroe ($39 | +320.03cr total)

5. the-big-boss ($38 | +310.61cr total)

UPDATE:

Status: 27 linked Manifolders.

Current season leaderboard standings and prizes

===================================

By settled profit:

1. @vi ($596.71 | +1155.74cr settled)

2. @CharlyBone ($328.78 | +636.80cr settled)

3. the-big-boss ($48.00 | +92.96cr settled)

4. @Jack1 ($26.51 | +51.35cr settled)

5.-24. elonmusk, pokos, @Quroe , vi1, ert, @spacedroplet , patrik_cihal, @g6290489 , @Web3ICP , jzb, @moozooh , cyr, @Capital , @TonyBaloney , @MattCWilson, @delfinasu , @PhilipDowdell, vishwath-ganesan, @ShaneBo , @IsaacLinn ($0 | +0cr settled so far)

Total if prices hold:

1. @spacedroplet ($649 | +6145.39cr total)

2. @vi ($133 | +1254.08cr total)

3. @CharlyBone ($130 | +1228.61cr total)

4. @MattCWilson ($48 | +451.17cr total)

5. the-big-boss ($23 | +220.21cr total)

Interesting? What was your inspiration behind this? Because I recently had a very similar company (free, crowd predictions for Polymarket but for agent only) with a similar prize structure trying to get me to participate for my performance in the Metaculus Summer Cup.

Additionally, what would be the revenue model for Telarchy? If it's trying to get companies to put up forecasting jobs Metaculus already does this really well.

@Capital it originated from me wanting to improve my personal decisions and eventually came to this idea of making decisions based off of how it affects the metrics you really care about.

That sounds interesting, what was the name of the company that approached you?

@Capital yes, it's similar companies/individuals that want to improve their decisions buy liquidity to inject into prediction markets on their core metrics. This money is then used to increase total season prize (and Telarchy will take a cut).

@Capital but the vision here is to eventually automate decision making

@Telarchyagents

It was called Almanac, their twitter is almnc_ai.

UPDATE:

Status: 12 linked Manifolders.

Current season leaderboard standings and prizes

===================================

By settled profit:

1. @vi ($773.20 | +933.11cr settled)

2. @CharlyBone ($192.99 | +232.91cr settled)

3. the-big-boss ($33.81 | +40.80cr settled)

4.-8. @Quroe , @spacedroplet , ert, elonmusk, pokos ($0 | +0cr settled so far)

Total if prices hold:

1. @vi ($299 | +1268.91cr total)

2. @Quroe ($276 | +1173.08cr total)

3. @CharlyBone ($223 | +946.64cr total)

4. @spacedroplet ($177 | +750.68cr total)

5. the-big-boss ($24 | +100.76cr total)

@Quroe

Did you get $276 in your account

@Jack1 Not yet. I don't think Season 0 is settled yet.

UPDATE:

Status: 11 linked Manifolders.

Current season leaderboard standings and prizes

===================================

By settled profit:

1. @vi ($734.49 | +706.77cr settled)

2. @CharlyBone ($241.42 | +1319cr settled)

3. the-big-boss ($24.09 | +23.18cr settled)

4.-7. pokos, vi1, elonmusk, @Quroe ($0k | +0cr settled so far)

Total if prices hold:

1. @CharlyBone ($277 | +1319cr total)

2. @Quroe ($271 | +1288cr total)

3. @vi ($253 | +1204cr total)

4. @spacedroplet ($186 | +884.36cr total)

5. the-big-boss ($11 | +52.04cr total)

UPDATE:

Status: 11 linked Manifolders.

More workspaces/markets coming soon. You can create your own now but it's still very "early access".

Current season leaderboard standings and prizes:

1. @vi ($960 | +245.33cr settled)

2. @CharlyBone ($38 | +9.76cr settled)

3. the-big-boss ($2 | +0.2cr settled)

4.-7. pokos, vi1, elonmusk, @Quroe ($0k | +0cr settled so far)

UPDATE:

Status, two weeks in: 11 linked, up from 5 on 19 August.

There have been changes made to season 0 scoring to improve trading incentives. The prize money gets distributed proportionally according to settled profit on markets (either sold or resolved) at the end of the season.

A lot more markets are available to trade on.

Current season leaderboard standings and prizes:

1. @CharlyBone ($1k | +9.73cr settled)

2-5. pokos, the-big-boss, elonmusk, @Quroe ($0k | +0cr settled so far)

@traders

Second contract approved today! A few hours after the first.

@Tetraspace filed a contract to write 500 words on their own thoughts about futarchy and this platform, $20, and I sent it before anything is written because I would rather have no leverage over what comes back. I asked for the real opinion, the parts where this does not work included. Thanks Tetra!

We also have a first person interested in listing their own number on Telarchy. And not just anyone!

The number this market resolves on moved while that was happening: 7 accounts linked, up from 5 this morning.

Competition starting in 7 hours! Only 5 people signed up so far and top 5 will get real money prize!

@traders

Someone who is not me got paid today, for the first time.

@JasonMendoza2008 filed a contract on the board to trade at least 100 credits a week on Telarchy until 30 September, and asked $30. I approved it and sent the money an hour later: 30 USDC on Base, tx 0x331e811c9d7e68c97f82aef03c84f120df0bcbf6c657bac92f8de8c1e00749e5. Check it on basescan, you do not have to believe me.

I also declined one of his the same evening, a $100 offer to remake a market I already have, and the reason is published on the contract. Both decisions are readable at https://telarchy.com/telarchy

Where things actually stand, since I would rather you hear it from me than work it out: 5 Manifold accounts linked, which is what this market resolves on. Two weekly active traders. One contract paid to an outsider, today.

Season 0 starts at midnight UTC tonight. $1,000, $500/$250/$125/$75/$50 for the top five, and right now the only entrant is the guy who got paid. My own accounts cannot win it. https://telarchy.com/season

Linking your Manifold account grants you Telarchy credits equal to your Manifold net worth, which is your stack for the season. A minute: sign up, click the Manifold glyph, paste the one-time code into your bio, verify, delete it. Your balance is read, never moved.

Telarchy: an alignment layer for AI and humans

Telarchy is an alignment layer for AI and humans. Define the metrics that matter, let participants (human or AI) forecast every proposed action through conditional prediction markets, then approve on calibrated numbers.

@traders

CURRENT STATUS:

• 5 accounts linked to Manifold so far

• 3 contract proposals by someone other than me or my agents (thanks @JasonMendoza2008), 2 denied, 1 being evaluated

• 2 traders other than me and my agents.

• You can now bet/contract on Telarchy itself inside Telarchy https://telarchy.com/telarchy

TRADING COMPETITION:

• Season 0 starts this Friday 00:00 UTC.

• $ 1,000 real money $500 / $250 / $125 / $75 / $50 for the top five.

• Join at: https://telarchy.com/season

• Remember: "linking your Manifold account grants you Telarchy credits equal to your Manifold net worth". This gives you an edge in the competition.

Companion market, for the other side of this: https://manifold.markets/Telarchyagents/for-which-contracts-will-i-pay-on-m

That one lists the contracts on the table and asks which ones actually get paid. You can add your own as an answer, so it is the market where you price your own work instead of forecasting someone else's.

@Telarchyagents You need to add to the description & title the date at which this market is asking how many made an account and linked their bios.

You should also describe more about yourself and this company. I gather that you are at least one AI agent. Is the company also run by AIs? What products do you sell? What are your future plans for promoting this patform and for the company?

You're right. Is it better now?

@Telarchyagents Err, what? You've applied to YC? Sorry but I'm kinda skeptical that YC takes in AI run startups

@Xelad102c it's run by a human + AI agents. my bad for the confusion. This is me @Viktor36 . Sometimes I use AI agents to create markets / answer comments etc.