Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the total funding (in USD) awarded to Manifold (Manifold Markets, Inc.) by Lightcone Commons during its first grant round (applications closed on August 23, 2026).

• Source of Truth: me

• Eligible Entity: Only funding explicitly directed to Manifold Markets (Manifold Markets, Inc.) will count. Funding awarded to Manifund (which operates as a separate open-grantmaking platform) will not count

• Eligible Funding: This market considers non-repayable grants, donations, or equity investments (such as SAFEs). Standard repayable loans do not count.

• Fallback: If no official decision or announcement regarding Manifold's application status is made public by June 30, 2027, I will resolve all the buckets to NO

Background

Lightcone Commons is a grantmaking platform launched in July 2026 by Lightcone Infrastructure (the organization behind LessWrong and Lighthaven). Designed to coordinate large-scale philanthropy for AI safety, forecasting, and other high-impact projects, the platform aimed to facilitate approximately $20 million in its first round.

Our application details how we plan to spend from $150k -> $1.6M. Our primary ask is based around $550k / $785k which would enable us to build for two years with a lean team, and help us direct resources toward more AI-safety focused development (as opposed to say, automating sports).