Will Musk's cozying up to far the right continue to hurt Tesla sales?
Will Musk's cozying up to far the right continue to hurt Tesla sales?
37
400Ṁ2100Jul 31
49%
chance
5
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria
Resolves Yes if TSLA quarterly gross profit remains below $3.6 Billion in Q2 2025.
Background
For 3 and a half years, TSLA has posted quarterly gross profits well above $3.66 Billion. In Q1 of 2025, gross profits broke below this barrier due to the damage Musk has done to the brand. At the Q1'25 meeting Musk pledged to spend a little less time in D.C. and promoted the conspiracy theory that protesters against Tesla are paid actors. Musk also said the changeover to the refreshed model Y affected sales.
If the changeover explains the drop, gross profit should return to historical levels. If not, Will this dodge fail to mend the brand image and fail to bring gross profits back above $3.6 Billion?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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