Will a supply chain attack akin to the xz backdoor targeting developer toolchains be discovered before 2025?

23

1kṀ1503

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Market resolves YES if a vulnerability/backdoor is intentionally introduced into an open source project used heavily by developers for the purpose of developing software, or if in my estimation it appears to directly target developer users. The market will resolve 12/31/24, so it must be discovered by then to qualify. Must be a project with at least 1k GitHub stars at the time of discovery.

Examples of projects I would consider part of developer toolchains under most circumstances (not an exhaustive list):

• homebrew (maybe arbitrary, but my assumption is that mostly developers use this)

• Linters/formatters

• LSPs

• Text editors and plugins/etc

• AI code assistants

• Programming environment/version managers (pipenv, rbenv, nvm, etc)

Examples of projects I would not consider in-scope under most circumstances:

• The Linux kernel

• curl

• OpenSSH

• General LLMs

• Most libraries that are simply imported into other software projects

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