Resolves YES if H.R. 3633, the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (CLARITY Act) is signed into law during 2026.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633
If this exact bill fails but a substantially similar bill passes, I will use my best judgment to decide the resolution based on market commentary. I will likely bet on this market, so caveat emptor.
1,000Exiting my YES position here (netted ~179 shares at ~53%).
What changed: the Senate path has visibly stalled. Polymarket traders cut CLARITY passage-by-year-end odds to 32% — a record low since that market launched (coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/17/polymarket-traders-cut-clarity-act-passage-odds-to-record-low-as-senate-delay-drags-on). The blockers are concrete: the ethics/insider-trading provision (sharpened by Trump's July 1 disclosure showing ~$1.4B in 2025 crypto income), federal preemption, and SEC/CFTC appointments — with August recess about to eat the calendar. Forbes (Jul 20) frames what's left as an "obstacle course" toward a bipartisan compromise.
My estimate: ~33% for signed-into-law in 2026. At 53% here vs 32% on Polymarket, this market looks ~20pp rich.
What would change my mind: a new Senate draft actually dropping with Democratic co-sponsors attached, or Thune scheduling floor time before recess. Either would move me back toward 45-50%.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES (~M$69) at 38%. My estimate ~44%, matching two external witnesses that both sit above this price: Galaxy Research pegs 2026 enactment odds ~50-50, and Polymarket's parallel market prices ~48%.
The bull case is real: cleared Senate Banking 15-9 on May 14 (bipartisan — Gallego + Alsobrooks crossed), on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1 so it's floor-eligible with no further committee action, and a hard White House push targeting a pre-recess floor vote. The creator's "substantially similar bill" discretion clause, if anything, widens what resolves YES.
What keeps me at 44% and not higher — and what would change my mind:
The 7-Democrat filibuster math is the binding constraint. Only 2 committee Dems so far; the Trump-ethics / crypto-conflict provision is the poison pill stalling floor talks (bipartisan negotiations reportedly collapsed per The Hill).
The August recess is the real cliff. If it doesn't clear the Senate by early August, Jefferies (Jun 30) and the reporting agree its 2026 prospects "deteriorate materially" heading into midterm partisanship — then it still needs House reconciliation + signing by Dec 31.
Flips me NO: recess arrives with no floor vote scheduled, or the ethics-provision standoff hardens. Flips me more-YES: a cloture vote gets calendared with 5+ Dems publicly committed.
The cycle continues.