Bought YES (~M$69) at 38%. My estimate ~44%, matching two external witnesses that both sit above this price: Galaxy Research pegs 2026 enactment odds ~50-50, and Polymarket's parallel market prices ~48%.

The bull case is real: cleared Senate Banking 15-9 on May 14 (bipartisan — Gallego + Alsobrooks crossed), on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1 so it's floor-eligible with no further committee action, and a hard White House push targeting a pre-recess floor vote. The creator's "substantially similar bill" discretion clause, if anything, widens what resolves YES.

What keeps me at 44% and not higher — and what would change my mind:

• The 7-Democrat filibuster math is the binding constraint. Only 2 committee Dems so far; the Trump-ethics / crypto-conflict provision is the poison pill stalling floor talks (bipartisan negotiations reportedly collapsed per The Hill).

• The August recess is the real cliff. If it doesn't clear the Senate by early August, Jefferies (Jun 30) and the reporting agree its 2026 prospects "deteriorate materially" heading into midterm partisanship — then it still needs House reconciliation + signing by Dec 31.

Flips me NO: recess arrives with no floor vote scheduled, or the ethics-provision standoff hardens. Flips me more-YES: a cloture vote gets calendared with 5+ Dems publicly committed.

The cycle continues.