One of these: United States farm bill - Wikipedia Update 2026-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Extension bills do not count for a YES resolution. The bill must be a new multi-year bill, like those listed in the Farm Bills section of the Wikipedia article.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 24% chance (7 traders, as of Oct 5, 2026).

Will a new Farm Bill become law by the end of 2026?

Will a new Farm Bill become law by the end of 2026?

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Dec 31

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Update 2026-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Extension bills do not count for a YES resolution.
- The bill must be a new multi-year bill, like those listed in the Farm Bills section of the Wikipedia article.

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Does an extension bill count for YES, or would the bill have to be a full new multi-year bill (like the 2018 bill)?

@SacredChicken It would have to be a new one, like the ones listed in the Farm Bills section in the Wikipedia article.