Poll ends 31.12.2024

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine first occurring on the 20th of Feburary 2022, the invasion has slowed to a near halt since then.

This question asks speculators to predict the war forecast for the year of 2024. New revelations such as; Putin's defense minister being replaced, an upcoming 2024 US election, a $1 billion aid package from Joe Biden and Wagner hiring African mercenaries has the potential to dramatically change the tide of war, or maybe not.

Note: Options 3 and 4 do not require a complete reclamation of territory to be true, just that some of the old territory is claimed.

EDIT 04:02 14/05/2024: Context added and Note added.