If the SBF case goes to jury trial, will he be found Not Guilty on 1 or more charges?

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resolved Nov 3

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I know, crazy, but what if he's not guilty?

https://sambf.substack.com

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SBF

Sam Bankman-Fried Trial (1st)

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Will SBF be vindicated?

5% chance

Will there be an SBF civil trial?

81% chance

Will SBF spend at least three years in prison?

92% chance

Will SBF spend at least a decade in prison?

75% chance

Will SBF spend at least one year in jail?

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predictedNO

Close and pay. The jury did its job.

BREAKING: FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is found guilty of defrauding customers of his now-bankrupt crypto exchange in one of the biggest financial frauds on record. A jury convicted him on all seven counts he faced https://reut.rs/3Qnc5yr

They got it right.

Jurors in Sam Bankman-Fried's criminal fraud trial have found the former billionaire guilty on all counts.

Of course, this is more about prosecutors overcharging, not the fundamental outcome.

People are also trading

Will SBF be vindicated?

5% chance

Will there be an SBF civil trial?

81% chance

Will SBF spend at least three years in prison?

92% chance

Will SBF spend at least a decade in prison?

75% chance

Will SBF spend at least one year in jail?

97% chance

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