This resolves yes if a wikipedia page for a stock market crash in 2025 for some country lists Trump tariffs as a factor and there is no obvious unavoidable bigger non-economic factor (like a natural disaster, or pandemic).
If the crash starts in 2025 as per wikipedia, even if most of the crash is in 2026, this will still resolve yes.
By stock market crash I mean index wide and has a wikipedia page for it.
Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:
Non-economic factors: If the crash is primarily attributed to a clearly non-economic cause (for example, an earthquake or other natural disaster), then the tariff will not be considered a contributing factor.
Economic factors: Causes such as reductions in consumer confidence, business investment, and tariffs are seen as tightly interrelated. Therefore, if they appear together, the tariff is considered part of the economic dynamics leading to the crash.
Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
Inclusion on the wikipedia list of stock market crashes will now be considered sufficient for resolution, even if there is no separate dedicated article for the crash.
1,000
3.00@JussiVilleHeiskanen I specifically said non-economic factors because I feel it's difficult to disentangle economic factors. If they say it's primarily an earthquake, then I wouldn't personally blame the tariff. If they say it's due to reductions in consumer confidence, business investment, and tariffs, I think they're too closely linked.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Maybe they weren't that big? I'm not sure but can you post articles about them? I'd be curious.
I like "if wikipedia has X" criteria because it's concrete as opposed to my personal judgment about what crash is or isn't big enough.
@Sz they are listed on the wikipedia list of crashes or bear markets, they just don't have a separate article, at least not yet. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets