There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040
12
55
Ṁ305Ṁ300
2040
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
@Yoav yes if taiwan takes over I would treat that as a new permanent member/member removed. it could be complicated if there is a partial merging.
More related questions
Related questions
Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?
46% chance
Coup in Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan or Lebanon before 2025
35% chance
Will there be a third party US president before 2050.
29% chance
Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?
37% chance
What countries will join the UN before 2030
What kind of presidents will we have by 2040?
University Presidents ousted before 2025
Will any UN country change its capital city before the year 2030?
65% chance
Japan has a female prime minister before 2040
42% chance
Harvard will select a new permanent President before November 1, 2024
32% chance