Will the UN have more or less than 193 member states in 2030?
Basic
6
Ṁ322030
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At the end of June 2030, how many member states will the UN have? As I write this, there are 193: will this number increase, decrease, or stay the same?
If the number of member states is 194 or greater, this question resolves YES. If the number is 192 or fewer, this question resolves NO. If the number is 193, this question resolves to 50%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
There is no mechanism for Member States to leave the UN. Even if a Member State "claimed" to have left the UN (like Indonesia did in '65), it still doesn't count as a withdrawal in the eyes of the international community because there is no such thing as a withdrawal. The only way the number would decrease from 193 is if a Member State ceased to exist altogether. This could be because it's been annexed by another state (which is illegal and the UN would never recognise it) or because the state has split into several successor states á la USSR and the successor states don't for some reason immediately join the UN.
Betting 'Yes' is significantly wiser than betting 'No', but I can't help but feel that it'd be better to be able to vote that the number will remain the same (which, in my view, is more likely than either the number going up or down).
@AlexCatalanFlores I've added a companion question: https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-the-number-of-un-member-states
@AlexCatalanFlores I think Russia was the successor state to the USSR. Has there ever been a split with no successor state?
Related questions
Related questions
What countries will join the UN before 2030
Will the UN add a new member state before 2030?
77% chance
Will the European Union lose another member by 2035?
43% chance
Catastrophic decline of United Nations by 2035?
41% chance
Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?
46% chance
Will the number of U.N. member states change this decade?
74% chance
Will there be a new UN-recognized country before 2030?
75% chance
Will a new Country be recognized by the UN before 2030?
78% chance
Will a nation in Europe which is not currently a full UN member state gain that status by 2035.
65% chance
Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?
81% chance